Keep Calm and Consolidate On
If you step back from the day-to-day perturbations of the broader market and look to the weekly timeframe, the picture often becomes less turbulent and more placid. What we have been seeing for most of this year is a classic horizontal consolidation phase after a long term trending period. At this point it’s that simple. Consolidations are healthy pauses that very often allow the market to reset and eventually resume the longer term move. There have been recent signals that we may have neared the top of the channel (I have written about them here), but these cannot be extrapolated beyond the possibility we are headed towards the bottom of the range. At that point, if conditions further deteriorate then we will have to reevaluate the technical strength of the market.