S&P 500 – Potential Intermediate Term Support Level

January 7, 2016 · Posted in Market Overview · Comment 

The S&P 500 index is on track to open below the support line of the declining channel it has been trading in since the beginning of November. The pattern projects a target price down to the August and September lows in the 1980 area. The stochastic oscillator has reentered an oversold condition, but it needs some stability in the index to make a positive crossover and exit the zone. This would be another bullish signal in a series of reliable trading signals from the oscillator.

99976.Channel

Herbalife Poised for a Powerful Breakout

January 5, 2016 · Posted in Daily Charts · Comment 

Here is a link to my analysis of Herbalife (HLF) published on TheStreet.com this morning.

herbalife-box-ss_139x90

S&P Successfully Tests Channel Support

January 4, 2016 · Posted in Daily Charts, Indices · Comment 

On Friday I noted that, “I have been highlighting for some time the stochastic oscillator on the daily timeframe and its accuracy in identifying short term shifts in price momentum. Crossovers in overbought or oversold zones and then moves out of those zones have signaled short term reversals. The oscillator has made another bearish crossover and is moving out of an overbought condition. The assumption is that the index will retest the channel low.” I had no idea that it would test channel support the following trading day.
Fortunately, the index was able to bounce off that level and trade up closer to mid-range into the close. The price action formed a hammer-like candle, but I do not expect the upper end of the declining channel to be retested tomorrow.

99609.SPXchart

These 3 Top Stocks From 2015 Look Tired in 2016

January 4, 2016 · Posted in Daily Charts · Comment 

Here is a link to my article on Netflix, Amazon, and Activision Blizzard published on TheStreet this morning.

netflixstreaming-2_139x90

S&P Stocks Close Year: 50% > 50 DMA and 50% < 50 DMA

January 2, 2016 · Posted in Daily Charts, Indices · Comment 

Fifty percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 index closed out the year above their 50 day moving average, and if my math is correct that means that about fifty percent closed below it (I guess some closed on it). Another example of the effortless ability of the market to confound. Tune in next year.

99975.above 50

Chart Review: S&P 500 Index on Multiple Timeframes

January 1, 2016 · Posted in Daily Charts, Indices, Market Overview, Weekly Charts · Comment 

These levels of support and resistance are already embedded in most traders brains, so I’ll keep it brief:

99974MonthlyChart

The S&P 500 index breached a long term uptrend line in August and has been unable to return to trend and make new highs. It was confined to a channel range between the 2130 and 1900 levels for the year. Its long term health is dependent on its ability to hold the August and September lows, and ultimately take out the 2015 high and return to trend.

99974WeeklyChart

The index has been consolidating in a narrow range at the top end of the long term channel since the October bounce, which took it briefly back up to the area of the highs made earlier in the year. On closer examination, however, this consolidation looks like a declining channel, and one key technical indication suggests the short term trend is lower.

99974DailyChart

I have been highlighting for some time the stochastic oscillator on the daily timeframe and its accuracy in identifying short term shifts in price momentum. Crossovers in overbought or oversold zones and then moves out of those zones have signaled short term reversals. The oscillator has made another bearish crossover and is moving out of an overbought condition. The assumption is that the index will retest the channel low.

These are the key levels of support and resistance, as I see them, going into the new year:

Support: Short term – 2035 to 2045 zone (current level of the index)
Intermediate term – declining channel support line
Long term – August/September 2015 lows

Resistance: Short and Intermediate term – declining channel resistance line
Long term – 2015 highs

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